From its meteoric rise to its current precarious position, TikTok has become a flashpoint in discussions about national security, data privacy and digital marketing. Now, its future in the United States is uncertain.

Let’s break down the events leading to the potential TikTok ban, its far-reaching impacts on companies and marketers, and explore what may happen depending on the Supreme Court’s decision on January 19.

Why the TikTok Ban Matters

TikTok’s unprecedented growth has made it a go-to platform for engaging Gen Z and millennial audiences. With roughly 170 million users in the United States, it has become a critical component of many marketing strategies. A ban would essentially disrupt this digital ecosystem, forcing brands, agencies, small business owners and content creators to rethink their digital playbook. Whether you’re a company heavily investing time and money into TikTok content or a consumer enjoying its endless stream of content, the stakes are high.

A Timeline of the TikTok Ban

2019

November: U.S. officials begin raising concerns about TikTok’s ownership by ByteDance, a Chinese company, citing potential risks to national security and data privacy.

2020

August: President Trump issues an executive order mandating ByteDance to sell TikTok’s U.S. operations within 45 days or face a ban.

September: TikTok files an injunction to block the ban, leading to a temporary halt in enforcement.

2021

February: The Biden administration pauses the ban and initiates a broader review of apps that pose potential security risks, shifting to a more comprehensive approach.

2023

March: TikTok’s CEO testifies before Congress to defend the company’s handling of U.S. user data and to promote its “Project Texas” initiative, aimed at safeguarding data from foreign access.

April: Several states ban TikTok on government devices, reigniting public and political debates.

2024

March: The House of Representatives passes the TikTok bill.

April: President Biden signs legislation requiring ByteDance to divest TikTok’s U.S. operations within a year or face a nationwide ban.

May: TikTok and ByteDance sue the U.S. government to challenge the new law.

August: The Federal Trade Commission and the U.S. Department of Justice file a joint lawsuit against TikTok and ByteDance, alleging the app violates children’s online privacy law.

December: A federal appeals court upholds the ban, and ByteDance faces mounting pressure to comply. Trump asks the Supreme Court to pause the TikTok ban.

Now, we’re caught up to this year.

2025

January 10: The U.S. Supreme Court hears arguments on the constitutionality of the law mandating ByteDance to sell TikTok or shut it down, primarily focusing on national security concerns and the potential overreach in limiting access to a global platform. Allegedly, the law would allow TikTok to continue operating in the U.S. if the app used a different algorithm.

January 13: Reports emerge detailing potential outcomes of the Supreme Court’s decision, further polarizing public opinion and heightening anxieties about the platform’s future.

January 19: The ban deadline. While technically TikTok isn’t required to shut down entirely, ByteDance is required to divest its U.S. operations. If the parent company doesn’t do so, the nationwide ban of TikTok will begin. What that means– well, we’re still unsure what will happen if/when the ban goes into place.

What Could Happen If the Supreme Court Votes to Ban TikTok

Immediate Shutdown: TikTok would no longer be accessible in the U.S., disrupting both users and businesses reliant on the platform.

Migration to Other Platforms: Users and creators would need to shift their content (spoiler alert: they’re already doing this) to alternative platforms like BlueSky, YouTube Shorts, Snapchat or new and emerging apps like RedNote (ironically and intentionally, another Chinese-owned social app) or Neptune (a new U.S. social platform in beta testing currently).

In a not-so-surprising move, users are not flocking back to Meta platforms like Instagram and Facebook, after news of the termination of major DEI programs, the switch from third-party fact-checking programs to a “Community Notes model” and reports that the company spent a record high $7.6 million on lobbying the federal government in the first quarter of last year.

While the company’s disclosure doesn’t specifically mention its agenda against TikTok (ByteDance), it does say the company lobbied on “Homeland Security” topics including “cybersecurity, data security, encryption, platform integrity, election integrity, content policy, terrorism, voter suppression/interference, political ads and misinformation policies.”

Continuation with Restrictions: Technically, under law, TikTok could be permitted to continue operating in the U.S. if ByteDance sells within nine months from the date the ban goes into effect.

Increased Scrutiny for Other Apps: The decision could set a precedent for how the U.S. handles foreign-owned tech companies moving forward. In fact, the U.S. government has already begun adding other foreign (primarily Chinese) companies to a list, claiming they have ties to China’s military.

The latest addition to the list includes Tencent, the world’s largest video game company, with investments in massive games like Fortnite (~2.25 million daily players across the globe in the last 30 days), and a partial stake in Ubisoft, known for popular gaming franchises like Assassin’s Creed, Far Cry and Tom Clancy adaptations.

The list of the ripple effects could go on and on.

(January 15: Ubisoft and Tencent are reportedly already working on a “new venture” together amid “major change.”)

Impacts of the TikTok Ban

For Companies and Brands

For businesses, TikTok has been a powerful tool for engaging younger audiences, driving marketing campaigns, gathering leads, and even selling products and services. A ban would disrupt these efforts, leaving brands scrambling to find alternative ways to connect with their target demographics.

Transitioning a social strategy to other platforms may require additional resources and could result in increased costs – not to mention the changes announced by other platforms (like Meta) and the struggle to follow an audience practically shapeshifting between platforms faster than we can interact with them.

For Agencies and Marketers

Agencies, like us, will need to guide brands through this transition, helping them pivot, strategize and find creative solutions. This might involve building relationships with influencers on new platforms or channeling pre-doomscroll days by (re)investing in owned media like blogs and email newsletters.

Looking Ahead

There are a lot of unknowns in the social media world on a good day, let alone during the days leading up to a ban of one of America’s favorite social apps. And the potential TikTok ban not only serves as a reminder of how fast the world changes but it also highlights the key to understanding consumer sentiment in a post-TikTok world (if it comes to that) – agility, adaptability and empathy.

Ready to future-proof your marketing efforts? Let’s chat.